US NOAA: El Niño to strengthen through late 2026, likely last until early spring 2027

(ECNS) --The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) under the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a forecast report Thursday, warning El Niño will keep intensifying by the end of this year with a 97% chance persisting into early spring 2027.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen steadily, with ocean-atmosphere couplings confirming El Niño’s growing strength.

The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index hit +1.2°C, well above the 0.5°C threshold that signals sustained El Niño formation. Forecasters put an 81% probability of an intense El Niño between October and December, potentially ranking among the most powerful events recorded since 1950.

NOAA formally declared El Niño’s onset and issued an alert back in June. In a separate climate analysis issued the same day, U.S. NOAA noted June 2026 was the planet's second-hottest June since 1850, only cooler than June 2024.