The Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) has warned of potential jet fuel supply constraints beyond next month, citing continued uncertainty in global energy markets driven by the conflict in the Middle East.
AASA chief executive Aaron Munetsi said airlines operating across the Southern African Development Community (SADC), including South Africa, are facing growing difficulty planning fuel needs due to a lack of clarity from suppliers and governments.
He said the aviation sector requires reliable visibility of at least six weeks on fuel availability to maintain schedules and meet passenger demand.
"Airlines require certainty on the security of jet fuel supplies beyond a six-week horizon if they are to maintain their schedules and fulfill their obligations to customers," Munetsi said.
The warning comes amid ongoing disruptions to global oil flows, including pressure on key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Industry players say even if supply routes stabilize, production and distribution are unlikely to recover immediately.
"Even when the Straits of Hormuz blockades are lifted, it will take months at the very least, for fuel production to return to its previous output as several refineries in the Gulf have been damaged and will need to be repaired or rebuilt. This is why we need transparent updates on fuel stocks, including what has been ordered but must still be delivered as well as the status of national strategic fuel reserves, the conditions that would trigger their release and how those reserves would be allocated and prioritized," he added.
Munetsi urged fuel suppliers, depot operators, airports, and SADC governments to urgently share contingency allocation and distribution plans, warning that airlines are currently operating with limited visibility in an already strained cost environment.
Jet fuel prices in Southern Africa have surged sharply since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, rising from about R8.50 ($0.51) per litre in February to over R30 ($1.81) by mid-April. In landlocked countries such as Malawi, prices have reportedly exceeded $3.02 per litre.
Airlines adjust fares amid fuel surge
The pressure has already begun filtering through to passengers, with several airlines introducing or adjusting fuel surcharges to offset rising costs.
South African Airways (SAA) has introduced fuel-related surcharges and adjusted ticket prices across its domestic, regional and international network, saying it can no longer absorb the sharp increase in operating costs driven by higher jet fuel prices.
FlySafair, one of South Africa's largest low-cost carriers, has also implemented a temporary fuel surcharge after a rapid spike in Jet A1 prices. The airline said the move was necessary to offset a sudden surge in costs linked to global market disruptions.
Munetsi has called for greater collaboration across the aviation ecosystem, including airports and air navigation service providers.
"Now, more than at any other time, they have a responsibility to ensure they operate with maximum efficiency," he said. He urged providers to make efforts to eliminate congestion and delays that waste fuel and drive up costs.
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