Key exclusions in talks expose divide

Riyadh meeting suggests U.S.-Russia thaw and sidelining of Europe, Ukraine

The exclusion of Europe and Ukraine from U.S.-Russia talks on the Ukraine crisis has exposed deepening rifts in trans-Atlantic relations, experts say.

They also suggest that a thaw in relations between Washington and Moscow could reshape the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Europe and Ukraine fearing their interests might be ignored in peace negotiations.

During high-level talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, the United States and Russia agreed to work on a path toward ending the conflict and improving bilateral ties.

Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later assured there would be engagement and consultation with Ukraine and European nations on the Ukraine issue, European leaders expressed concern over being sidelined from the closed-door talks, fearing their interests might be ignored in U.S. President Donald Trump's pursuit of his Ukraine deal.

European nations have been left at "the kids' table" in discussions over the future of Ukraine, said Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany's largest defense contractor, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, as reported by the Financial Times on Tuesday.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Daily that if the U.S. and Russia have set the direction and framework for resolving the Ukraine crisis, involving Ukraine and the European Union would just be a formality.

"When the U.S. mentions future European participation, it doesn't imply genuine involvement. Once the U.S. and Russia reach a consensus, they can persuade Europe and Ukraine to accept the outcome, addressing some of their security concerns," Zhang said.

"This is why some say Europe has been relegated to the 'kids' table', losing its major say and gaining neither substantive benefits nor its respectability in the peace talks."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized his nation's exclusion from the Riyadh talks, saying that Ukraine would not accept any outcome from discussions in which Kyiv was not involved. In response, he postponed his trip to Saudi Arabia.

Trump rebuked Kyiv's complaints, stating: "Today I heard, 'Oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal."

Zhao Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of Regional and International Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, highlighted the contrast between the U.S. and Europe in their views on the crisis.

"For Europe, the conflict is an existential matter, while for Trump, it's a matter of cost-benefit," he said.

"The Trump administration, viewing the conflict through an interest-based lens, believes it's not worth the investment and seeks to strategically withdraw from Europe to focus on other strategic priorities, including easing tensions with Russia.

"Conversely, Europe sees the Ukraine issue through a values-based perspective, with deep-seated distrust and hostility toward Russia, leading them to discuss supporting Ukraine independently."

French President Emmanuel Macron was scheduled to host a meeting on Ukraine on Wednesday, aiming to coordinate a European response to what he describes as an "existential threat" from Russia, following the U.S. policy shift.

Zhao said, "These U.S.-Europe differences may reduce the conflict's intensity, but future disagreements still require consultation to resolve."

The Riyadh talks marked the first face-to-face meeting between senior U.S. and Russian officials since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out three years ago. The discussions resulted in several agreements aimed at resolving bilateral issues and thawing diplomatic ties.

Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin's foreign affairs adviser, described the talks as "positive".

According to a U.S. State Department statement, both countries agreed to set up a consultation mechanism to manage bilateral relations and normalize diplomatic missions. They will also appoint high-level teams to work toward a lasting resolution of the conflict while exploring future cooperation on geopolitical and economic interests tied to a resolution of the conflict.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University-Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said the discussions revolved around initiating full-scale negotiations to resolve the Ukraine crisis, with both sides resuming normal diplomatic interactions across a broad agenda.