UN report: Global trade grows by $300 billion in H1, outlook still uncertain

Global trade grew by an estimated $300 billion in the first half (H1) of 2025, despite showing a slower growth pace, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released on Tuesday.

In its latest Global Trade Update report, UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year.

According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 percent in the first quarter and is expected to grow by 2 percent in the second quarter.

The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 percent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter.

Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 percent over the last four quarters.

The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 percent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 percent rise in exports from the European Union.

Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances.

The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent U.S. tariffs, including a 10 percent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.