Stronger-than-expected economic indicators portend robust recovery momentum

(ECNS) -- Recently released indicators show that China's economy continues to maintain robust momentum in recovery during the first quarter, with some sectors performing better than expected despite the lackluster global economic growth outlook.

The total value of China's goods import and export reached 9.89 trillion yuan （about $1.44 trillion）in the first quarter, an increase of 4.8 percent year-on-year, and 2.6 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year.

During the same period, China's export of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells increased by 66.9 percent, a year-on-year increase of over 100 billion yuan, which boosted the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points.

Analysis of the Bank of China Research Institute shows that China's export growth rate in March far exceeded market expectations thanks to the release of previous order backlogs, the return of export orders for labor-intensive products, and the strong competitiveness of new advantageous products. However, it warned that there is still uncertainty in international demand and that businesses should be cautiously optimistic about future export trends.

Financial statistics exceeded expectations, too. According to the People's Bank of China, RMB loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 2.27 trillion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans increased by 3.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 749.7 billion yuan over the same period last year.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), an important indicator for observing economic changes, continued its expansion trend in March in China.

China's manufacturing PMI in March hit 51.9 percent, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index stood at 58.2 percent and 57.0 percent, respectively.

Zhang Yu, chief macroeconomic analyst of the Huachuang Securities Research Institute, believes that the continued rise of the comprehensive PMI output index in March suggests that China's economic performance may exceed expectations. 

It is forecast that China's economy would fully embrace a post-pandemic recovery in the second quarter.