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Chinese expert optimistic about 6 percent or higher growth target in 2023

2023-03-23 Editor : Zhang Dongfang ECNS App Download

(ECNS) -- China’s economic growth target of five percent in 2023 is conservative and is very likely to reach six percent or even higher, said Justin Yifu Lin, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, on Wednesday.

Lin made the comments at a conference to discuss China’s economic prospects and interpret this year’s National People's Congress (NPC) and National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) held by the National School of Development at Peking University.

He analyzed the potentials of future economic growth in China, which include innovation potential.

“China is at the catch-up stage and has the advantage of being a latecomer,” said Lin, citing examples of countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea who had achieved the goal of per capita GDP growth by more than eight percent at the catch-up stage in history. “China has potential in this aspect,” Lin said.

He pointed out that China and developed countries are playing on a level playing field in the new economy, and it has a large domestic market, abundant human resources and complete industrial facilities that Germany, Japan and South Korea did not have then.

He also said that China still enjoys a demographic dividend. “As citizens are better educated, China owns a huge population quality dividend, which will not be limited by the quantity,” Lin said.

Considering these advantages, Lin believes that China is likely to realize the annual growth target of around eight percent before 2035 unless there are unpredictable black swan events.In addition, the country’s economy will rebound strongly this year after getting rid of the influence of COVID-19.

Moreover, he is optimistic about China becoming a high-income country by 2025 according to the country’s per capita GDP of 12,741 U.S. dollars in 2022 which is close to the standard made by the World Bank of 13,205 U.S. dollars last year.

"If China can achieve the growth goal of six percent this year and around six percent next year, I believe that China will definitely be able to overcome the threshold of a high-income country in 2025. That will be a milestone in human history," said Lin.


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