Coronavirus Battle in China: Process and Prospect
Since the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic broke out in Wuhan in late December 2019, the Chinese government has taken robust measures to curb the spread of the deadly virus, most notably a full quarantine on Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and strong control and preventive measures in such metropolitan areas as Beijing and Shanghai as well as other population centers around China. These efforts have received wide media coverage at home and abroad and major questions have been raised as to: first, why did the government impose an unprecedented lockdown on Wuhan? Second, are the Chinese central government and local authorities competent enough to contain the virus? Third, what are the negative effects of the epidemic on China’s economy? And fourth, what kind of international cooperation is required to ensure human security in the face of epidemics? As the combat against the epidemic is still evolving, here are some tentative answers and assessments given by a task force specializing in global governance issues at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
1.Why were mass quarantines exercised on Wuhan and other epidemic areas?
Quarantine is a traditional and yet the most effective measure to contain a deadly epidemic, although it may bring unforeseen risks and consequences. Because there is no specific cure or vaccine against virus-caused infections (including 2019-nCoV),standard public health emergency measures usually prove most efficient, including isolating the sources of infection, cutting off or interrupting transmission routes, and special care for the most susceptible people. Available medical evidence shows that humans, regardless of gender, age, or race, are all susceptible to this deadly new coronavirus; thus, in the absence of specific cure or vaccine, source isolation and transmission chain interruption are by far the only reliable and effective methods. The unprecedented exercise of a full quarantine on Wuhan, the heart of the outbreak, reflects China’s dedication as a responsible great power. In fact, since the quarantine began, the number of confirmed cases in all regions has grown at a much lower speed than that in the epicenter Hubei province; and Wuhan remains the only city with concentrated infections. Of all the confirmed cases outside Hubei province, the majority of patients have either lived in or traveled to Wuhan or other areas of Hubei recently, and the rest have been in close contact with the above-mentioned patients. So far, there has been no reported incident of local community transmission or any new epicenter of outbreak.
Based on these facts, we can conclude that strict control over population outflows from Hubei province is an effective way to contain the spread of the deadly virus. At present, high-level emergency alerts have been activated all across China and vigorous public health measures taken to identify, diagnose, and isolate infections or suspected cases at the earliest possible moment. At the same time, the Lunar New Year holidays have been extended to keep the nation-wide migration of population at the minimum level; and travelers from Wuhan and other epidemic areas are advised to report their travel records and to self-quarantine for two weeks to prevent community transmission. The reported five million people who had left Wuhan before the lockdown announcement are not panicky evacuees, but migrant workers seeking family reunions back in their hometowns or holiday travelers taking their leisure time around China and even abroad.
What would happen if China had not closed off Wuhan and other epidemic areas?
According to credible analysis, highly-connected global transport networks may enable contagious pathogens to spread from backwater villages in unknown corners of the world to major cities on six continents in less than 36 hours and trigger outbreaks or cause epidemics. Yet in China, by January 30, 2020, more than a month after the first confirmed case was reported and eight days after the Wuhan lockdown, there had been 18 countries reporting 98 scattered cases of infection altogether，according to the latest WHO report. Had the Chinese government not taken determined efforts to quarantine the places with concentrated confirmed cases, the deadly virus may have spread all over the world and generated devastating impact on the global economic and public health systems. As WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesuson correctly pointed out at a press conference on January 30, “the Chinese government is to be congratulated for the extraordinary measures it has taken to contain the outbreak, despite the severe social and economic impact those measures are having on the Chinese people”.
Beijing is doing everything possible to ensure sustained supplies of daily necessities and medical materials. Hubei province is abundant in natural resources and basic supplies have never fallen short. The Ministry of Commerce has activated a material supplying mechanism involving nine provincial authorities, through which basic items, including medical materials, steadily flow into Hubei. It is a long-running tradition for the Chinese to store more than enough food and other items for the Spring Festival season and many households in Wuhan have already accumulated ample supplies before the lockdown. So there is not a general shortage of food or other life necessities. Wuhan citizens are not left in a deserted city to their own devices. Food supplies and basic social services are fully ensured. Although Wuhan’s public transport has been suspended, local residents’ personal freedom has not been restricted and most households have opted for self-quarantine to avoid potential infection. Those who have to travel are offered vehicles by community-level organizations. Public mood is improving as local residents’ lives begin to come back to normal with regular information disclosure and stepped-up personal hygienic measures.
Hubei province has 72 grade-A hospitals and 942 other medical facilities, of which two of China’s top ten hospitals are located in Wuhan, together with 229 other medical facilities. Medical institutions across China stand ready to provide assistance to Wuhan at request and groups of medical personnel are arriving at Wuhan to reinforce the local public health system. Following the model of Xiaotangshan Hospital built in 2003 to treat the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) victims in Beijing, three new hospitals are erected in Hubei, including the 1,000-bed Dabieshan Regional Medical Center in Huang Gang, which was put into full operation on January 28, as well as the Huoshenshan Hospital (with 1,000 beds and covering 34,000 square meters) and Leishenshan Hospital (with 1,500 beds and spanning 75,000 square meters) in Wuhan, which are expected to be ready for use on February 3 and 5, respectively -- within 10 days after plans for construction were made. Full operation of the three facilities will further enhance the local public health capacities.
