China will likely keep a strict grip on the real estate market and continue to "stabilize housing prices" without loosening lending next year, but there may be some structural change in coordinating policy such as removing regulatory caps on housing prices, industry analysts said.
The comment comes after a meeting of the top decision-making body of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on Thursday, which focused on studying economic and other policies for 2019, did not mention any work related to the property industry for the first time in the past four years.
This absence, combined with the downward pressure the Chinese economy is expected to face next year, has prompted market speculation that policymakers may move to relax tightening measures over the real estate market to prop up domestic economic growth.
But Yan Yuejin, a research director at E-house China R&D Institute, rejected such speculation by saying that the reason property was not discussed in the meeting was because the Chinese government wants to maintain the current policy.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, the main conclusion of the meeting was that China will adhere to the general theme of making progress while ensuring stability. Echoing the theme, "the governing logic in the property industry is still stabilizing prices, so there will likely not be a major policy shift next year," Yan told the Global Times on Sunday.
Earlier on October 29, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on its website, vowing to accelerate establishment of a housing system that is in line with the Chinese government's pledge of "housing built for living, not for speculation."
Although curbing a surge in housing prices is still the main task for the property industry next year, an industry report on interpreting the central government meeting by Jiangxi-based Guosheng Securities Co predicted that there will likely be some structural and regional changes in coordinating policies. Industry insiders pointed out that this could mean removing limits on housing prices.
"But such an adjustment is still within the range being stipulated by the government, so it would not be a big stimulus to the Chinese economy," Yan said.
"Unless property developers reduce housing prices, there will be no difference between the policy effects [of a small change] and no change at all," a real estate agent was quoted as saying in a report by 21jingji.com.
