China will continue to drive global auto sales growth over the next 12-18 months amid slowing US consumption, Moody's Investors Service said in a report yesterday.
Global car output is likely to moderate next year, three years after 2013's rebound, but China's relatively high economic growth and relatively low vehicle penetration will ensure the rebound continue in the medium term, said the report titled "Global Growth to Slow Modestly; China Remains World's Strongest Market."
Auto sales in China, which gained 8 percent in the first seven months of this year, should meet Moody's full-year growth forecast of 8.1 percent, the rating agency said.
"We expect global sales of light vehicles to increase 3.2 percent this year before easing to 3 percent in 2015," said Bruce Clark, Moody's vice president and senior analyst.
"China continues to be the main buyer of light vehicles. Its share of that market is set to rise from 27 percent this year to 28 percent in 2015."
Moody's said growth in US domestic delivery will slow from 4.3 percent this year to a modest 1.5 percent in 2015 as the supply of used cars rises.
"Used car prices will drop as a result," Clark said. "Additionally, much of the pent-up demand created during the 2009-10 downturn has been satisfied, after rapid sales growth from 2011 through 2014."
Meanwhile, Moody's forecast growth in car sales of 1.6 percent for Western Europe in 2015. It maintained a stable outlook for the global automotive manufacturing industry for the third consecutive year.
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