Experts: Too soon to predict El Nino effect

Dire social media warnings about record-breaking heat and extreme weather conditions this year may be drawing widespread attention, but experts have said that it is too early to predict if a super El Nino — a climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific — will develop this year.

Online discourses have suggested that this year and the next could be the hottest on record, raising concerns that a powerful El Nino weather phenomenon capable of triggering global climate disruptions is approaching.

Experts from the administration's National Climate Center said the current monitoring data suggests that lingering La Nina conditions — cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific — are weakening, and the tropical Pacific could shift toward an El Nino state later this year.

"There is a high likelihood that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will enter an El Nino phase in the second half of this year, but it is not possible to accurately predict its exact onset time or overall intensity right now," said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It typically recurs every three to seven years and can influence weather worldwide.

Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. A three-month average anomaly above 0.5 C for at least five consecutive months indicates El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below — 0.5 C indicates La Nina.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the center's climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures. But the scale of warming and intensity of extreme weather depend on the event's strength, type and regional climate responses. "At this stage, it is too early to say that a super El Nino would occur and lead to the hottest year on record," she said.

The experts warned that social media discussions about "the hottest year" or catastrophic weather could be exaggerating or misrepresenting. Chen urged the public to interpret predictions cautiously, noting uncertainties in timing, intensity and regional impacts of any El Nino event.

zhaoyimeng@chinadaily.com.cn