Policymakers in Western countries should resist the urge to backtrack on the decades-old trend of globalization as a lurch toward protectionism can wreak significant economic damage, a senior British economist has told Xinhua.
"The changing political dynamics of recent years, particularly across Western countries, reflect a number of issues amongst voters, many of which come back to the structural economic transformation wrought by both technological change and globalization," said Marcus Wright, a senior economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.
He forecast that the global economy will record another year of decent, if unspectacular, growth in 2017.
The eurozone will grow around 1.5 percent and the U.S. economy may see a modest acceleration to above 2 percent. "Any growth kick from Trump's fiscal policy proposals is likely to be felt much later in 2017 and into 2018."
On China, Wright said that after the slowdown in 2014 and 2015, the Chinese economy was steadied last year on the back of a hefty dose of policy support.
Amid continued strong credit growth and an improving factory sector, headline growth will very likely see only a modest change from the 6.7 percent in 2016, he predicted. "Any tightening of policy to address asset bubbles and building financial vulnerabilities will likely be modest."
China's reform and opening up policy has been a major factor in raising incomes and reducing poverty, particularly within China but also across other developing nations as "China's tide lifted other boats," he noted.
Meanwhile developed nations also benefited from cheaper goods made in China and a rapidly growing consumer market there, he said.
"Given China's still considerable catch-up potential, there is plenty scope for further mutually beneficial gains," said Wright.
He said that improved transport, power, sanitation and Internet connectivity is fundamental for development.
With the annual global infrastructure investment shortfall estimated at 1 trillion U.S. dollars, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative, both proposed by China, would help address this sizeable infrastructure gap, he said.
