A mug of ice-cold beer might be the best cure for a hot summer's day, but as Earth turns hotter and drier, a sharp reduction in barley output may push up the cost of this inexpensive beverage beyond what many can afford.
Beer is the most popular alcoholic drink in the world by volume consumed, but a new article published in scientific journal Nature Plants says that as climate change impinges on barley farming, beer may see a bitter price hike.
According to the study, the world may see beer prices double on average this century in the highest temperature increase scenario, and even in lowest increase scenarios, beer lovers will still have to dig deeper to cope with a 15-percent price rise.
Scientists from China, Britain, the United States and Mexico worked on the study, which analyzed over 300 extreme weather events predicted before 2099 under different climate change scenarios and their impact on barley and beer production.
Xie Wei, lead author of the article and researcher at China's Peking University, said concurrent drought and heat waves, which will become more frequent and severe in the backdrop of global warming, are estimated to reduce global barley output by between 3 and 17 percent this century.
"This will lead to even larger decreases in supplies to brewing industries as barley used in food production (as animal fodder) will be prioritized," he said.
As beer supplies shrink, wealthy, traditionally beer-loving countries are likely to see the most drastic price hikes. Ireland, for instance, is expected to see an average price hike of 193 percent in the worse case scenario.
Though not falling into that category, China, the largest beer-consuming country, may also witness an 83-percent rise in price, according to the study.
Co-author Nathan Mueller, assistant professor of Earth system science with the University of California, Irvine, said that if current levels of fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emission remained "business as usual," the world's beer market would face the worse-case scenario.
"Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to increases in drought and heat extremes in barley-growing areas," he said.
Xie told Xinhua that the research tried to fill in the blank of climate change studies on "high value-added agricultural products," as previous research mostly focused on the impact on food crops.
He also said the world needs to be more sober about climate change by realizing that it, apart from causing extreme weather events, could also affect consumer good prices, public well-being and employment.
"The public may care more about the changing climate after realizing how it will affect their weekend parties, socialization and even their watching of the World Cup," the researcher said.
