Canadian province of Ontario said on Friday that between 3,000 and 15,000 people in the province will die from COVID-19 by the end of April if the current anti-COVID-19 measures in place are upheld.
Without any public health measures, the death number could rise 100,000, Peter Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health Ontario said at a press conference in Toronto on Friday.
"That is why we needed to do all the things we have done thus far and why we need to continue," Donnelly said. "If we all do a good job and stick to the measures, we can get an end result between 3,000 and 15,000."
"That is our closest estimate," he added.
Donnelly said that every year in Ontario, about 1,350 people die from normal, seasonal flu. In a bad year, 1,500 people die.
"When you think that the mortality of this disease is up to 10 times higher, and you remember we have no vaccine, and we have no specific treatment ... then suddenly the figure of 15,000 becomes entirely logical and comprehensible."
But Donnelly stressed that people can change the outcome throughout the province by staying home and physically distancing. "We need everyone to stay focused in the weeks ahead."
He added the time frame of 18 months to two years is in line with other credible models about the pandemic, which account for the possibility of secondary or tertiary waves.
Ontario reported 462 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, up 16 percent from the day before. The total number of cases currently stands at 3,255, including 67 death.