U.S. crude oil prices will fall and crude oil production will increase in 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast that Brent crude oil spot prices would average 61 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2019 and 62 dollars per barrel in 2020, compared with an average of 71 dollars per barrel in 2018.
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged 59 dollars per barrel in January, up 2 dollars per barrel from December 2018 but 10 dollars per barrel lower than the January average last year, according to the outlook.
The EIA also expected that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will average 8 dollars per barrel lower than Brent prices in the first quarter of 2019 before the difference gradually falls to 4 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and through 2020.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 90,000 b/d from December 2018, said the EIA.
According to the forecast, U.S. crude oil production is going to average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.2 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of the state of Texas and New Mexico.
Global liquid fuels inventories grew by an estimated 0.5 million b/d in 2018, and the EIA expected that they will grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2020.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports were estimated to fall from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018. The EIA forecast that net imports would continue to fall to an average of 0.9 million b/d in 2019 and to an average net export level of 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA believed the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.
