Insights丨Einar Tangen: China’s next five years: The crossroads of stability, innovation, and confidence
(ECNS) -- As the fourth plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee is being convened in Beijing, global observers are watching closely for how it will recalibrate China’s economic direction. According to Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) & Chair, the meeting’s central mission is “to discuss the blueprint for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030)”, setting new policy pathways in high-quality growth, technological self-reliance, domestic demand expansion, regional balance, and deeper coordination between the market and the state.
Stability first, confidence as the foundation: The Plenary sends a signal of policy certainty
Tangen describes China’s policy-making as “glacial in movement”, which means it’s not a revolution of direction, but a process of steady refinement. This plenary, he argues, will focus more on the adjustment of expectations than the change of course. It will assess progress under the 14th Five-Year Plan and set measurable, realistic objectives for the next phase. In essence, the session functions both as a political agenda recalibration and an economic rebalancing.
For Tangen, the meeting’s true significance lies in the signals it sends: predictability, coordination, and stability. The CPC, he notes, have already called for “better policy predictability, coordinated timing of measures, active steps to shore up market and public confidence.” These moves imply that China will rely on well-timed policy packages to stabilize expectations and “selectively ease constraints” on both state and private firms to reinvigorate enterprise confidence.
China’s economy grew 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching over 66 trillion yuan. Against a backdrop of global uncertainty, this resilience is remarkable. Tangen believes the plenary will institutionalize this steady momentum through policies that boost consumption and investment, strengthening household income, improving market conditions, and enhancing social safety nets. In parallel, initiatives supporting technological autonomy and industrial upgrading will serve as twin engines propelling the shift from growth in quantity to growth in quality.
He expects “more explicit support for homegrown tech, including semiconductors, AI, and advanced manufacturing,” ensuring China’s proactive role in global innovation competition. The emphasis on new productive forces will likely find its structural foundation in the plenary’s outcome. This is not just an economic adjustment, he implies, it is also a strategic realignment of national competitiveness.
Innovation-driven and upgrade-oriented: A new engine for China’s high-quality development
In facing geopolitical volatility and rising global protectionism, Tangen anticipates that China will pursue a path of stable openness. The plenary may propose steps to “reduce systemic constraints, improve policy communication, and reinforce investor confidence,” while promoting trade and investment facilitation. He expects shorter negative lists for foreign investment, broader opening of service industries, and stronger IP and legal protections. “Policy coordination and predictability,” he stresses, “are at the heart of attracting foreign enterprises.”
Ultimately, Tangen envisions a China that advances through stability, quality, and reform. The Fourth Plenum, in his words and tone, is not a moment of upheaval but of consolidation: an institutional commitment to confidence, structure, and sustainability. It is through measured adjustments, not dramatic pivots, that China seeks to strengthen its internal momentum and its position in a changing world.