Curbing mainland visitors will lower HK’s GDP: study  

港府研究削减内地客 若实施首年料损失393亿港币

据香港《明报》,有经济研究组织早前以联合国经济模型计算减少两成内地客对香港未来3年经济影响，发现影响集中于政策推行首年的经济增长率，料会由3.3%降至1.4%，令生产总值减少393亿(港币，下同)，而影响会于第二年陆续消失。[查看全文]

(ECNS) – If Hong Kong decides to curb tourists from the Chinese mainland, it might lose HK$39.3 billion this year, a study shows.

But that's the worst-case scenario.

A simulation by the ACE Business and Economics Research Center shows a decline in mainland visitors would cause Hong Kong's economy to dip by 1.4 percent from the current growth rate of 3.3 percent, led by a drop in the tourism industry, according to Hong Kong's Ming Pao.

But the study also says the effect may be "short-term" and won't spill over to other economic sectors.

Just last month, Hong Kong's Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying mentioned the possibility of cutting visitors from the Chinese mainland by 20 percent to protect the city's overloaded tourism industry.

Last week, Hong Kong's retail industry voiced their discontent over the plan, saying their businesses would be largely confined. And the Hang Seng Bank lowered its forecast for retail growth from 13 to 5 percent, due to subdued consumption and housing dips.

However, Kwan Cheuk Chiu, economist and director of the research center, said the impact would fade away over the course of one or two years, since tourism only "contributes to a small portion of the economy." The study predicts Hong Kong's GDP would see a minor drop of 0.3 percent in 2015.

Kwan also said that due to limitations of the forecast model, a 20 percent GDP drop in the first year may be the worst it could get. And measures could be taken to minimize the impact, such as only restricting visitors who come to Hong Kong multiple times a day.

Hong Kong's Commerce and Economic Development Bureau said the government is collaborating with the Security Bureau and the Immigration Department to study the plan.