Ministry expects normalcy in 2020, but high prices to linger till Spring Festival
China's pork production capacity is expected to bottom out before the end of this year and return to normal in 2020 after a widespread, deadly pig disease that has devastated the country's hog herds for more than a year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Thursday.
Production at large-scale pig farms, which slaughter more than 5,000 pigs each year, has rebounded across the country, said Yang Zhenhai, chief of the ministry's animal husbandry and veterinary medicine bureau.
In September, there were about 44.5 million live pigs in such farms, up 0.6 percent from the previous month. The number of breeding sows also climbed by 3.7 percent to more than 6 million from August to September, according to Yang.
Increasing sales of pig feed last month also point to a positive momentum in overall pig production, the ministry said based on data collected from related enterprises.
"The rates of decrease in total pig herds and sow herds nationwide both slowed down significantly in September," Yang said, noting that both rates had been rising consistently from March to August.
However, Tang Ke, chief for market and economic information at the ministry, said in the short term, pork supplies in domestic market will remain tight.
Prices of pork are set to stay high until the 2020 Chinese New Year that falls on Jan 25 next year, he said, adding that newly released frozen meat as well as increased production of poultry meat will further help secure overall supplies.
China has reported 157 outbreaks of African swine fever as of Wednesday since the first case was detected in August 2018.
The latest outbreak was discovered in two vehicles transporting 48 pigs on an expressway in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in South China on Tuesday.
The disease's spread has rattled the domestic market of pork - the most commonly consumed meat in China - and resulted in price spikes since June, the ministry said.
To ease the tight supply, China has been expanding its purchase of pork products from overseas, including the United Kingdom.
According to UK customs figures, exports of UK pork to China were up 77 percent in the first six months of this year compared to the same period in 2018. This was driven by an increased demand by China as a result of the swine flu outbreaks.
China is now the UK's single biggest export partner by volume, making up 20 percent of exports valued at 80 million pounds ($102 million) a year, according to the National Pig Association in the UK.
Growth in demand from China may also help soften the potential impact of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. The UK sends 55 percent of its pork exports to EU nations, and in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK would face significant tariffs on pork exports to the EU of up to 45 percent.
"Given restrictions of exports of pork to the EU, the export trade to China is vital for the British pig sector," said Edward Barker, the pig association's senior policy adviser.
