The Chinese economy will face greater uncertainties in 2016 than last year, economists with the Bank of Communications Co Ltd said on Thursday.
The prospects of global economic recovery are still unclear. If the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates continuously, it will cause emerging economies to suffer capital outflow and local currency depreciation. China is under pressure of de-capacity and industrial deflation, and whether real estate investment will stabilize remains uncertain.
Among these factors, the stabilization of the Chinese economy will depend more on global economic recovery, the Fed rate hike and domestic real estate investment, as excess capacity cannot be reduced in the short term, said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications.
He forecast that the economy will grow at 6.7 percent this year with further downward pressure in the first six months. But the economy will stabilize after the second quarter, as the government will strengthen the current fiscal and monetary policies and the previous policies will take effect gradually.
