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Economy

Yuan's depreciation not behind global turmoil, say economists

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2015-08-28 14:57chinadaily.com.cn Editor: Si Huan

If something has to be blamed for the recent global financial markets' sell-off, it should not be China's currency depreciation, said economists.

Stock markets in New York, Tokyo and Europe began seeing turmoil from Aug 20.

Chinese yuan's sudden depreciation, however, happened 10 days earlier than the global markets' fluctuations, and it should not be seen as the blasting fuse, said Ding Zhijie, an assistant to the president of the University of International Business and Economics.

Commodities prices, especially for the oil, tumbled as investors expected a stronger US dollar.

In September the United States' Federal Reserve hinted at hiking the interest rates and return back to normalized monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the monetary easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will fuel dollar's appreciation.

The rate hike expectation pumped capital out from emerging markets and reduced their foreign exchange reserves. Depreciation of Kazakhstan's tenge, Thailand's baht, and Vietnam's dong against the US dollar was faster since the beginning of this year, and it accelerated in the recent two weeks.

Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, said that the global financial market's turmoil was created by the strengthening US dollar amid the rate rising outlook. Yuan's depreciation should not be the scapegoat.

The more than 3 percent depreciation of yuan against the US dollar was based on a new regime for setting the daily trading reference rate.

The market-oriented regime is a significant reform towards a free-floating exchange rate, and it is also a part of efforts to better reflect global market developments, according to experts.

"A free-used yuan will support the currency to join the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket, and the reform was taken before the final review in November," said Shen.

Premier Li Keqiang said on Tuesday that there no longer exists a basis for continued depreciation of the yuan and the exchange rate will be kept basically stable.

"It is also wrong to interpret the depreciation as a 'competitive currency war'," Shen added.

In economists' view, global concerns about the health of the Chinese economy were overdone recently.

"China has so far maintained prudent monetary policy, the amount of monetary supply is reasonable, investment, trade and the international balance of payment is quite stable. Thus the economic and financial risks are still under control," said Ding.

Tom Rafferty, an economist in China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said "the volatility that we've seen on the domestic stock market, while hardly putting policymaking in a favorable light, really has little bearing on the wider Chinese economy."

"While the economy is slowing and faces many medium-term challenges, it does not face a hard landing in the near-term. Markets in the region now appear to be adjusting on that basis," he said.

  

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