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Balance economic growth and restructuring

2015-03-17 15:42 chinadaily.com.cn Web Editor: Si Huan
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China's economy is still facing mounting downward pressure as economic data of the first two months remains weak, partly due to the slowdown of the country's investment growth. Accumulated fixed-asset investment grew 13.9 percent from a year earlier, down 4 percentage points compared with the same period last year and 1.8 percentage points compared with that throughout 2014.

Two reasons account for the slowdown. First, real estate adjustments continue, with no sign of recovery. Property investment rose 10.4 percent in the first two month, down 8.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and 0.1 percentage points than in the whole 2014. Second, manufacturing investment growth remains slack due to weak demand and the influence of PPI decrease in the past three consecutive years. In January-February, the sector's investment increased 10.6 percent year on year, 2.9 percentage points slower than the overall growth in 2014.

Slowing industrial output growth also weighs on the downward pressure. Value-added industrial output in January-February rose 6.8 percent year on year, a record low since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Above statistics project further economic slowdown that's likely to bring first-quarter GDP growth to below 7 percent. It's understandable that some people may thus become pessimistic about the situation.

But that's not how I look at it.

The slowdown is but a phase during China's economic transformation and upgrading. Significant turnaround appears in some areas, with new growth points coming into being and industrial structure improving, which are key factors to keep the country's economic growth at the medium-to-high speed.

China's economy has entered the "new normal". Industrial output and investment growth no longer plays a decisive role in assessing the economic situation. Premier Li Keqiang has for the first time said in this year's government work report that the country is undergoing profound economic restructuring - exactly in investment and industrial areas. Investment growth slowdown, real estate debubbling, and industrial adjustments are inherent trends. What our macro-economic policies will do is prevent a sharp slowdown instead of helping the economy to surge again with strong stimulus measures.

Certainly, there are things that keep us upbeat. And new growth points are replacing old ones as China's economy enters the new normal.

First, services sector is gaining momentum and there will be much progress in the industry. Its added value saw huge growth in the past three years, reaching 8 percent, 8.3 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. By contrast, that of the secondary industry dropped steadily to 7.3 percent last year from 8.2 percent in 2012.

That's a big shift amid economic restructuring. The rapid development of the services industry, coupled with the country's growing support for small and micro businesses, largely explains the relatively good prospect of job market despite economic slowdown in the past few years.

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