China vulnerable to climate change

China will face rising temperatures and more extreme weather conditions such as large-scale drought and flooding this year, and sea levels will continue to rise due to the impact of climate change, according to a new report.

Temperatures will rise by 1.3 C to 5 C by the end of this century, according to the third China national assessment report on climate change released on the sidelines of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Lima, Peru, in December.

"Climate change has both positive and negative impacts on China, but overall it does more harm than good," says Liu Yanhua, counselor of the State Council.

Positive impacts include increased solar and thermal resources for agriculture, expanded plantation areas for some crops and additional benefits to forests and other ecosystems.

At the same time, negative impacts are felt on a number of fronts, including yields and quality of grain, water resources, marine environment and ecosystems and cities, Liu says.

As the largest developing country, China is very vulnerable to climate change. More than 70 percent of natural disasters are associated with extreme weather and climate events.

More apparent adverse impacts of climate change would be found in agriculture, cities, transport, infrastructure, the South-North Water Diversion Project, power grids and other energy facilities, says the report.

National mean precipitation will grow by 2 to 5 percent in the coming years, albeit precipitation changes in South China will not be significant, according to the report.

Under the future impact of climate change, the total water resources will likely be reduced by 5 percent, China's food security risk index will first fall and then rise, and security issues for water, ecosystems, food and energy will be further intertwined.

As a country still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, China's carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow.

In a recent joint announcement, leaders of China and the United States set new targets for cutting greenhouse emissions. China says it intends to peak its carbon dioxide emissions around 2030.

Li Gao, deputy directorgeneral of the department of climate change of the National Development and Reform Commission, says the country has made low-carbon development a core element for designing the nation's ecological civilization plan.

China will step up efforts in hammering out a legislative plan on climate change, said Li at a side event held during the talks in Lima.

The Chinese government recognizes the existence of climate change and the impact of human activity. The nation has organized an expert team to study what would be the corresponding policies that should be put in place from now to 2050 to realize a low-carbon transition.

China will reasonably control the incremental part of its energy consumption and strictly control its coal consumption, says Li.

Liu says China's current development stage and resource endowment make its response to climate change harder and more costly.

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions by one metric ton costs the government 167 yuan ($27), it says.

The good news is that restructuring has been made a top priority, and innovation of technologies, streamlined economic structure and expansion of the service sector will all contribute to energy savings and emissions reductions.

If existing units are replaced with innovative technology, it could help reduce emissions by 420 to 700 million tons in 2030, said the report.

By 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the energy supply sector are predicted to be around 4.5 billion tons, with 770 million tons from industrial processes and about 492 to 811 million tons through afforestation and sustainable forest management, according to the report.

With cleaner coal technology, the current power generation efficiency will increase by 4 to 7 percent, which is significant for a country that relies heavily on coal. Promotion of carbon capture, utilization and storage can reduce hundreds of millions of tons in carbon dioxide emissions every year.

China has also learned from other countries' experiences and lessons.

"As a developing country, China will try its best to cooperate with other developing nations to actively tackle climate change," says Xie Zhenhua, head of the Chinese delegation at the talks in Lima.

"It's a very good initiative that we very much welcome," says Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Inspired by the leadership of China, Figueres says, the secretariat of the convention is going to open up a South-South Fund, which will mainly focus on adaptation knowledge sharing.

The third China national assessment report also finds the average land warming in China in the 1909-2011 period was in a range of 0.9 to 1.5 C, according to the latest instrumental records on temperature in the past century.