China poised to benefit from OPEC dissolution

Competition among producers favors buyers

Just because a story gets a lot of press coverage does not mean that the broader public is aware of it. An example of this is the possibility that economic pains stemming from falling oil prices could lead to the breakup of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Whilst drivers around the world are happily noticing cheaper prices at the pump, many would be hard pressed to state why OPEC's stranglehold on global oil markets has slipped, or even what OPEC is. Yet, it is the cartel's refusal to accept a new energy landscape that has led to oil prices falling so low.

China is one of the most direct beneficiaries of falling oil prices. For all its economic might, China remains the fourth-largest oil producer, far behind the top three of the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Conversely, China is the largest net importer of oil, sending tendrils snaking out to tap into as many oil rivulets contributing to the global flow. Venezuela and others beside have been desperate to slake the thirst of the Asian giant. But these are all countries that need high oil prices simply to balance their budgets. The knockout blow their economies have received from the downturn will make them rely all the more on China.

This puts China in a very strong negotiating position when brokering oil imports, as it will benefit on several strong fronts. Figures quoted by The Economist say that every time the value of an oil barrel drops by $1, China saves $2.1 billion a year. This means it has made the pro rata equivalent of $117.6 billion since June as prices have tumbled from $115 a barrel to just $59 in mid-December. This will correspond to direct social benefits, such as higher consumer spending in other areas and allowing the government to continue with its plan to reduce or scrap fuel and electricity subsidies. This scenario would only be a prelude to what would happen, should OPEC break up.

Such a scenario would once have been viewed as outlandish; so total was the world's reliance on OPEC, and mostly Saudi, oil. With the US now having surpassed Saudi Arabia as the top producer of oil, the balance of power has shifted. OPEC members such as Venezuela and Algeria have had enough of Riyadh using the group's clout as an extension of its foreign and economic policies. Just last week, Algeria broke ranks with its oil minister Youcef Yousfi making a direct appeal to OPEC to cut production rates and allow prices to rise, calling on the group "to defend the income of its member states." OPEC is looking less and less like a happy family and more like a fragmented coalition, aware that the economic scenario that led to its creation is fading.

An OPEC breakup would be a major boon for China. It already imports from Venezuela and others; but while it strikes deals with these countries individually, it has had to contend with OPEC's policies and its ability to artificially control global oil supply and consequently prices. With OPEC removed from the equation, this changes. Caracas, Algiers, Tehran and many others would enter into more direct competition, each potentially trying to outbid the other to secure exports to China. The long-term price deals inked could likely be revisited in China's favor and new agreements could protect China from geopolitical repercussions.

What of the impact on Chinese oil producers? After all, Saudi Arabia's prime motivation for letting prices drop was to hurt the profitability of the US shale gas boom and protect its own market share. The same logic would extend to China's shale producers. But while China has taken steps to protect its oil companies from the fallout, the economic repercussions do not seem to be that severe. It is true that Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC have all seen their share prices take a hit with falling oil prices but that is to be expected. Sinopec's refining activities have actually seen its revenue rise as prices have fallen. Sinopec has also announced that these developments will have no impact on its shale gas development activities, shielded as these are by a government subsidy of 0.40 yuan ($0.06) per cubic meter which will at least extend for the duration of 2015.

The way China has navigated global energy markets has allowed it to secure very favorable deals to import oil and drill in foreign territories and waters. It seems exceedingly likely that the breakup of OPEC would allow such successes to continue.