NBS aiming to improve data accuracy

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has launched a pilot reform program aimed at improving the accuracy of key statistical data, a move that could help relieve doubts over the reliability of the nation's economic indicators, economists told the Global Times Monday.

Fixed-assets investment data offers a good basis for measuring the economy, so authentic and accurate fixed-assets investment statistics are of vital importance in evaluating economic trends and conducting macroeconomic fine-tuning accordingly, NBS chief Ma Jiantang

said at a recent meeting in Xi'an, Northwest China's Shaanxi Province, according to a statement posted Friday on the bureau's website.

Respondents to investment statistics surveys will be chosen more carefully and the method of calculating the investment amount will be shifted to focusing on fiscal expenditure rather than estimates of the projects' market value at completion.

Without revealing the exact date of the meeting, the statement said four places - Jincheng in North China's Shanxi Province, Wuxi in East China's Jiangsu Province,

Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture in Southwest China's Guizhou Province, and Xi'an - will take part in the pilot program.

The NBS did not specify whether the pilot will later be expanded nationwide, and it could not be reached for further comment on Monday.

"Such a pilot would definitely help improve the authenticity of the country's economic data," Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Securities in Hong Kong, told the Global Times Monday.

A rising gap has been seen in recent years between gross fixed-capital formation, which is included in calculations of GDP, and the figures for fixed-assets investment, according to Wang, who said this may be a reflection of false data.

In 2002, an increase of 1.07 yuan in fixed-assets investment was required to form 1 yuan in fixed-assets capital, but in 2007 the ratio was 1.79 to 1, indicating a growing gap, Citigroup economist Shen Minggao wrote in a report in July 2009.

In a response to market skepticism over the data, the NBS explained later in the year that the gap was due to different statistics criteria for the two figures, but this failed to reassure the market.

The accuracy of fixed-capital formation data is key to the authenticity of GDP figures, but local government officials' obsession with political achievements may have pushed them to ignore this, Ye Qing, a professor at the Wuhan-based Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told the Global Times.

In addition to investment data, the reliability of export data has faced growing doubts.

Despite a sluggish recovery seen in the economy, exports and imports have soared by 14.7 percent and 16.8 percent respectively in April year-on-year, according to customs data.

The exports data appears to be exaggerated, and is a reflection of hot money inflows rather than the real trade situation, said Lian Ping, Shanghai-based chief economist at Bank of Communications.