China's achievements over the last decade, as summarized in Premier Wen Jiabao's recent government work report, are extraordinary, and so are the challenges the country faces moving forward, said a China expert in Chicago.
"It would be impossible not to be impressed by how much China has accomplished, and impossible not to be impressed by how big the problems that still remain," said Kenneth Pomeranz, Professor of History at the University of Chicago, as he reflected on Premier Wen' s government work report delivered at the ongoing annual session of the National People's Congress.
Pomeranz also serves as hte president of the American Historical Association and is the author of The Great Divergence: China, Europe and the Making of the Modern World Economy. He is regarded as one of the world's leading China specialists.
A key reason that Pomeranz attributed to the success of the fast development in China is the strong central leadership.
"China got through the 2008 financial crisis better than almost any other place because the central government could push through a stimulus program quite quickly," said Pomeranz in a Xinhua interview. "They could take a lot of construction projects that were in the planning stage and accelerate them. That was quite impressive," he continued.
On major challenges such as environment problems and corruption, Pomeranz stated that it is less clear if such top-down approaches will be adequate for improvement.
Many environmental policies look quite good on paper, he said, but their implementation has been quite difficult, especially at the local level.
Because China is trying to do so much so fast, and is doing it on a relatively slim margin of error, Pmeranz pointed out, it is crucial to balance the centralized enforcement with the local jurisdiction.
When talking about the projected 7.5 percent economic growth stated in Premier Wen' s government work report, Pomeranz said it is still very impressive.
"There are enough drivers there to keep that kind of growth going for a while," he said. "The transition from rural to urban still has 15 to 20 years to run, and that kind of rapid urbanization means massive investment in infrastructure, lots of things that are going to keep demand reasonably healthy for a while," he added.
He said if the economy runs into trouble, he doesn't think it will be for economic dynamics. What worries him more are environmental, social and political problems.
One of Pomeranz's focused studies is the long-term significance and global context of environmental change in China, especially in water management.
"China's water problems require greater success than they've been able to have so far, particularly in reducing waste," he said.
He pointed out that the government can do projects like the "South-North Water Diversion," but in the long run, the most cost-effective way to get more water is to waste less of it.
"That requires lots of unglamorous and small scale actions," he said. "But those are very hard to implement because they have to be done at the grass roots."
He stated that at the moment, local leaders are much more heavily evaluated on growth statistics than environmental variables. He suggested that such issues should be addressed with higher priority.
Another issue he pointed out is energy. While China has gone in a very short time to be one of the world leaders in the investment of green technologies, it is also the biggest source of carbon generating country in the world. He stated that there are no ready-made remedies that China can import and implement to fix the problems. The solutions have to be internally generated, both technologically and sociologically.
Addressing the issue of urbanization, Pomeranz said that he expected China to reach about 65 percent urban around 2030 and then urbanization would level off. That means adding about 240 to 250 million people in the cities.
"That's adding almost the total population of the United States," he said. "It's a staggering project and is very costly."
He commented that a significant achievement in China is that with such large-scale migration of people to the cities, there are no urban slums like one would find in Cairo or Manila where electricity and sanitation are cut off.
"That's most impressive," he said.
But he pointed out one issue that needs to be addressed is the care of the aging population. Because of the family planning programs, the aging population in the cities require new structures and services, which will compel more young people migrate to urban areas, leaving a gap for the care of elderly in the countryside.
"These problems have to be addressed by some kind of system in strengthening the social safety net, which is mentioned in Wen Jiabao' s speech," he said. "There are a lot remain to be done, and a lot has to be figured out on the fly."
Turning to the issue of dealing with corruption, Pomeranz emphasized the importance of addressing it from different levels. He observed that the petition system to the central government has been clogged and proved inadequate. China can learn relevant lessons from the outside world, he said.
"I don't think there is a society that doesn't have corruption," he said. But a more independent judiciary, a stronger legal system, and a less supervised press can be "reasonably effective at limiting corruption," he said.
Pomeranz said he is very optimistic about China's future.
"I think in the institutional sense, despite the problems, it's for things to continue, not to be perfect, but to get better."
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