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Long-term perspective needed to assess China's economy

2012-11-12 15:31 People's Daily     Web Editor: yaolan comment

China has won an unshakable position in the global supply chain, industrial chain, and value chain through unremitting efforts. Correct assessment of the development trend of China's economy requires a long-term perspective on its potential and growth room, and should not be based on temporary data fluctuations.

The international community is paying close attention to China's economic situation. Optimists believe the Chinese economy is stabilizing and regaining momentum, while others are worried about a possible hard landing in China. Objectively speaking, although the country still faces complex domestic and foreign environments in its economic and social development, extensive facts and data prove that the Chinese economy still has huge potential and room for growth, and will continue to contribute to global economic recovery.

Internationally speaking, China has fully integrated into the world economy after more than 30 years of reform and opening-up, and its economy is bound to be influenced by the external environment. At present, many developed economies such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan are still struggling to recover.

The world economy has been persistently sluggish due to certain ineffective economic and financial policies as well as excess dollar liquidity and depreciation of major currencies caused by three rounds of quantitative easing. Certain countries have become more short-sighted, and set up more trade and investment barriers against emerging powers, which is not conducive to global or their own economic recovery at all.

Domestically speaking, China is facing considerable difficulties in maintaining relatively rapid growth in domestic demand, Chinese companies are witnessing a general revenue decline, and there is a marked slowdown in the country's fiscal revenue growth, indicating that the foundation for economic stability is not solid enough.

However, the slowdown in economic growth is a target and desired result of the Chinese government's macroeconomic control measures. The 12th Five-Year Plan calls for accelerating transforming the economic growth model and maintaining an economic growth rate of around 7 percent.

Behind the economic slowdown are some achievements the Chinese government has made over the past few decades, including greater balance among the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries as well as accelerated elimination of backward production capability.

China's economy is showing many positive signs. Data for September and October show that the Chinese economy is stabilizing, and will continue its upward trend in the fourth quarter.

Properly valuing the development trend of Chinese economy and viewing its development potential and space should be done from the long run and perspective of history, rather than according to temporary and fluctuant data. Since the Reform and Opening up, Chinese economy has made considerable progress.

Socialist market economy has become more mature and perfect, with the reserves of capital, technology and talents as well as the confidence and experiences coping with all sorts of risks being unprecedented. China's financial condition remains well and the debt crisis and "fiscal cliff" in the United States, Europe and Japan will not appear in China. A large number of facts and data show that China still has huge potential in economic development.

By virtue of unremitting efforts, China has won unshakable position in global supply chain, industrial chain and value chain. As of the end of 2011, 480 Chinese enterprises rank among the Fortune 500 firms. In the first half of 2012, China overtook the United States and became the country attracting the most foreign direct investment.

In addition to its own development, China also made significant contributions to the world development. China has become the major engine of the world's economic growth, the mainstay of international trade and investment and the most important or second largest trading partner of 78 countries.

China's development is inseparable from the world. A peaceful, stable, open and inclusive international environment is essential to it. Currently, the international financial crisis displayed its deeper influence and the downside risks of the world economy increased, which needs countries to continue to help each other to tide over it. China is willing to adhere to the mutually beneficial and win-win strategy and strengthen coordination and cooperation with other countries to promote the world economy to achieve a strong, sustainable and balanced growth as soon as possible.

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