"One of the first places I think the Chinese would retaliate would be by reducing significantly the purchase of soybeans from the United States," Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at Matthews Asia, said at a January event co-hosted by SupChina and China Institute.
Trump will have a lot of Republican congressman from the Midwest saying "we could lose some significant number of seats during the midterm elections," Rothman said.
He also said that people do not hear very much from the American companies that are doing well in China.
For example, GM sells more cars in China than it does in the United States; Boeing delivers more aircraft in China than it does here; about half of the U.S. soybeans are going to China.
"U.S. exports to China have grown by 500 percent since it joined the WTO," he added.
Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative showed that U.S. exports of goods to China in 2016 were 115.6 billion dollars, accounting for 8 percent of overall U.S. exports in 2016 and up 503 percent from 2001 (pre-WTO accession).
Statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce show that U.S. exports of goods and services to China supported an estimated 911,000 jobs in 2015, according to the latest data available.
BEST OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE
As leading members of the WTO, the United States and China should rely on the WTO dispute mechanism as the first line of defense in dealing with the inevitable trade disputes that arise between the two nations, Roach said.
"This is far preferable to unilateral actions taken by one nation that then lead to escalating retaliation by the other," he said.
At the same time, the United States and China should move quickly to restart the seemingly dormant negotiations for a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT).
A BIT could provide a framework for rules-based market access, allowing for fair and equitable operations of American and Chinese multinational corporations in each other's home markets.
"As such, a high-standard BIT would go a long way in pre-empting future disputes over trading practices that have put the U.S. and China on the brink of a major trade war," Roach said.
Since Trump prefers to have bilateral trade agreements and one-on-one talks with top decision-makers, Peterson suggested the two nations try those options to make progress on trade.
"Given the immense challenges we face as a global community, our two countries must work together productively in order to build a better world for all of our citizens and other citizens around the world," said Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of the Blackstone Group, at a Chinese Lunar New Year Gala last month.
"If we proceed from a foundation of mutual respect and understanding, we will identify areas of common interest and together meet challenges ahead," Schwarzman said.
"It's my firm belief that the relationship between the United States and China will define the 21st century," he added.