BRITAIN'S ECONOMY ENDANGERED
According to the latest predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Brexit could leave Britain's economy more than 5 percent smaller by 2019 than if it stays in the 28-nation club.
"In the short run, the uncertainty generated by navigating a complicated and untested exit process could be damaging for investment, consumption and employment (in Britain)," the IMF said in its report.
According to research commissioned by employers' group the Confederation of British Industry, a British vote to leave the EU could cost the economy 100 billion pounds (137 billion U.S. dollars) and 950,000 jobs by 2020.
In an op-ed piece written for The Guardian on Monday, billionaire George Soros said that Britain leaving the EU would have disastrous effects on the British economy.
Soros used data from the Bank of England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the IMF, which calculated that the long-term economic consequences of Brexit would reduce annual household incomes by between 3,000 pounds and 5,000 pounds (about 4,110 to 6,850 U.S. dollars).
Trade is another tricky issue. Britain's withdraw from the EU's single market is costly as it has to renegotiate trade agreements with the EU member states, 52 economies which enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU, or with over 100 members of the World Trade Organization.
BREXIT TO WEIGH ON EU ECONOMY
Brexit is set to create chaos to EU's budget plan as well as the ongoing capital market integration, bringing negative impact to the EU financial institutions and eventually weigh on the bloc's economy, experts say.
Britain is the fourth largest net contributor to the EU's budget, after Germany, France and Italy. This year, it would have to contribute 19.4 billion euros (21.59 billion U.S. dollars) to the EU budget and gain back rebate and custom duties worth 5 billion euros.
Experts said the budget gap caused by Brexit has to be filled by other EU member states, of which Germany is expected to contribute the biggest share.
Brexit means Britain will leave the EU's would-be capital market union, which aims to remove barriers for investors and help mobilize money for infrastructure projects and, most importantly, SMEs.
Brexit is expected to be harmful to the EU's capital market union as Britain has long stood as a significant part of the EU's capital markets.
Meanwhile, experts cautioned that Brexit would as well have negative impact on the bloc's financial institutions.
For instance, the European Investment Bank (EIB), whose capital relies heavily on the bloc's major economic powers, is faced with the reduction of Britain's share which accounts for some 16 percent.
Brexit as well puts the bank's high rating on risk, leaving the bank's bond in a vulnerable position and may drive investors away to look for safer bonds.
Economists warned that Brexit raises great uncertainties on the bloc's growth, which unfortunately is still sluggish.
It was predicted that the growth of EU's gross domestic product may slow to 0.5 to 1.0 percent in 2017, compared with the previous predication of around 1.6 percent.
BREXIT MAY SLOW PACE FOR TURKEY'S ACCESSION TO EU
"Britain's departure may further delay Turkey's accession process," Turkish columnist Serkan Demirtas said. "Brexit would introduce ideas of special relationship between the EU and the non-member countries such as Turkey."
"Britain was a main country of the Trans-Atlantic wing of the EU. Its departure is a strategical loss for Turkey," said Serhat Guvenc, Professor of Kadir Has University.
He added that due to Britain's belonging to Trans-Atnaltic wing of the EU, it has always supported NATO member Turkey's relations with the EU. In the long term, Turkey will lose its supporter inside the EU.
Sait Akman from Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation recalled negotiations between the EU and Turkey which aims to upgrade current Customs Union agreement and said the process might delay after Britain's departure since the bloc would be busy with its internal problems.
DIVORCE PROCESS TO TAKE YEARS
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, has warned that renegotiating the relationship between Britain and the EU could take up to seven years.
In accordance with EU law, the British government first has to launch a proposal to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which sets out the procedural requirements for a member state to terminate its membership.
Then a "withdrawal agreement" needs to be negotiated on such things as tariffs on British goods and freedom of movement between Britain and the remaining EU member states. Legal withdrawal would mean that EU treaties and their protocols no longer apply to Britain, and EU financial programs would be phased out.
After the signing of a new deal between Britain and the EU, which according to the Lisbon Treaty should be concluded in the course of two years, "every single one of the 27 member states as well as the European parliament would have to approve the overall result. That would take at least five years and, I'm afraid, without any guarantee of success," Tusk told German magazine Bild earlier this month.
The ratification process could be long and painful, Tusk warned. It is predicted that the EU would offer a tough deal to Britain to dissuade others from leaving.
