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No new stimulus needed as economy remains stable(2)

2013-04-23 10:07 China Daily     Web Editor: Mo Hong'e comment

He added that any relief work needed in the aftermath would be carried out gradually, over the next two to three years, thus the cost of that would not put any pressure on the country's overall fiscal position.

Total fiscal revenue from all China's local governments was 6.1 trillion yuan in 2008. By 2012, that figure had almost doubled to 11.7 trillion yuan.

Yang Weixiao, an analyst with Lianxun Securities, said he expected the relief work would mean an extra 2 percent industrial added value to the Sichuan economy, which can be translated into nearly 0.1 percent on a national level. The cost of the rebuilding was likely to add an average 0.5 percent to the Consumer Price Index for the next three quarters, Yang added.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said during the recent annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund that the country's 7.7 percent growth recorded in the first quarter of this year was a "reasonable level", and that the government's prudent policy stance should mean steady growth and stable price levels.

He stressed that economic reform in China has to take preference over high-speed growth over the short-term.

Tang Jianwei, a senior analyst with Bank of Communications Co, said the economic stimulus measures introduced in late 2008 were mostly meant in response to a sharp slowdown in the economy due to external influences.

"But today, the slowing economic growth is mainly the result of a lack of internal motivation."

Besides, Tang added, that 2008 stimulus package had also resulted in issues such as an overheated housing market.

"The impact of natural disasters only has a short-term effect on an economy. Over the long term, such an impact is often countered by the resultant reconstruction program," Tang said.

Wendy Luo, an analyst with Barclays Bank in Hong Kong, said the Ya'an earthquake was likely to delay plans by property developers, and hurt the confidence of house buyers, which could hit prices and earnings in Sichuan province.

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